A Discussion About Expectation in Poker

It's very possible to be broke and to stay broke even though you're a talented and knowledgeable poker player. As I mentioned in this previous post, I've had my share of problems building a bankroll. But none of these problems have much to do with my fundamental poker skill level when it comes to things like reading people, or how to bet my hand. For this entry I thought I'd list a few principles relating to how to win at poker the right way, and keep your money. Basically, this is a short list of several things you're probably doing wrong.

1- Your expectations are too high.

If you've historically been a break-even player, but have recently discovered a renewed passion for the game and are taking poker more seriously than ever before, you should now expect to earn $1 or $2 an hour.

No matter how excited you are about gaining new information about the game, winning at poker nonetheless remains a long process. No one ever revolutionizes their game overnight. Ask any great player and they'll tell you that it was only after thousands and thousands of hours of play, and a multitude of contemplations and epiphanies, that they became great.

You must relate your expectations only to your past results. Make sure to keep accurate records and be proud of any improvements, however small. Remember, most players who win significant sums of money in a short period of time are simply being gamblers and are generally prone to give most or all of it back.

2- You're playing on a short bankroll.

This problem is expressed in two ways:

• If you're playing on scared money you can't play your best and will end up with an inferior win rate than if you simply played smaller stakes. It's not that you don't have the skills to play the bigger game, it's just that you aren't comfortable with the stakes. Don't let ego get in the way. 

• Your expectation of what your expectation should be relates heavily to your bankroll. A broke gambler should be really happy if they can find a game in which they can build a bankroll risk-free. You shouldn't be trying to double or triple a bankroll in a short period of time. Instead, you should be thinking of growing it a small bit at a time, like a good investment. If you have $5000 in a poker bankroll and you expect to have $15000 by the end of the month, you're obviously shooting the moon and risking going broke. The attitude to have with a $5000 bankroll is to try and turn it into $6000 by next month. You can't survive as a pro, expecting to earn a few grand or more every month if you don't have both a sufficient bankroll to play your regular game (likely in the ballpark of 15 or 20k), and a winning track record over a long period of time.  

3- You're not looking at poker like a business.

You'll often hear people say that poker is a business. I don't think of it that way, to me it's really just a game, but it's handy to relate the experience of being a serious player to that of being an entrepreneur or an employee.

Suppose you held a good job with a great potential for advancement, and you earned around $20/hour. Would you march in to your boss's office after 3 months with the company and demand a salary increase to $40/hour? The odds are good that even though you may have the potential to be earning $40/hr, or $150/hr, or even making partner in this company in the future, your boss will still laugh you out of the office. Yet, asking for a small raise to $22/hr sounds much more reasonable doesn't it? My point is just that you have to let things naturally progress. A sustained effort will result in great results in the long term. 

As a final note I'd like to point out that fixating on these issues is a mistake. Thinking about your expectation or your win rate is not going to help you decide whether or not you hand is still good on the river. As I said at the top of this section, poker is a game. It's a complex game with many meta-game considerations, some people say that it's 'a game within game'. And it's playing the game to the best of your abilities that will really decide how successful you are. Being smart with your bankroll, properly considering EV, and other similar considerations are just some of the little things that can help you avoid some of the pitfalls inherent in the game and perhaps achieve success more quickly.