The Donk Bet And The King High

This is the first article in the my series entitled 'The Smartgambler Saga'  [from 05/12/2006]
Well I'm doing it, I'm headed for the bigtime with my $500 bankroll! Actually I've already turned it into $1075 playing heads up and short-handed $2-4 limit holdem. That's a great start because I didn't expect to make this much so early in this mission, but I'll take it! There are some really bad players at this limit and very few players demonstrate any higher level thinking. Also, the players that do tend towards playing a tricky and aggressive style (the type of style that tends to win the money in bigger games) typically have a very hard time keeping their composure. I've seen a a lot of players play pretty much as good as me for 10 minutes or something until they take a beat or make a bad decision and then all of the sudden they become major donkeys in the game. So that was the first point I wanted to make in this post, being solid always pays. Even if you aren't really a naturally talented player I think just being solid ALL the time would be enough to beat the heck out of the lower limits. This Italian guy I know, a $20-40 pro from Atlantic City named Carlo used to play with Phil Ivey when he was coming up and he told that the kid, Ivey, never played a 'F-ing' hand, that he was the most solid player in the game ALL the time.


The real point of this post though, was to point out two specific weakness I have noticed and profited by lately. The first one I call the 'King High'. It seems that there are some players who thinks K3offsuit has some kindof of heavy duty edge in heads up play. I'm sorry to burst all of you fishes bubbles, but that hand pretty much sucks, even head up. It has very little equity advantage over ANY hand (55% to 45% favorite over 7 5offsuit) but it is a serious dog against many of the stronger holdings in holdem (73% to 21% dog against KQsuited). Basically this means, if you are playing heads up and your opponent plays strong your hand is very weak. Don't get me wrong, K3 is still a great hand to play overall, but you have to pick your spots. My point here is that when I raise in position, I find I often get reraised by a weak King and what happens next is even sicker. It's not enough for these over-aggressive donkeys to put a little bit of money in bad preflop, they then proceed to call me down all the way with only KING HIGH! If I was playing like a total maniac this would usually still be a terrible play, but considering that I actually play a fairly controlled style, at least in the early rounds of betting, it's an unthinkably bad play. I win 100% of these pots because I know they call down so often, so I only bet big ace highs or better, but I bet them strong.

Next is 'The Donk Bet'. I see this in full ring games as well as short handed. It usually happens on the later streets in a heads up pot when you have position, you have been betting the whole way, and it should be painfully obvious to your opponent that you have a good hand. Then all of the sudden, out of nowhere, the guy bets into you? Nothing has changed on the board, you have no reason to suspect that his hand somehow beats you now, so of course you call, and inevitably your opponent shows some kind of weak and ragged hand or busted draw. This has been happening to me ALL the time, and of course I rake in the pot with top pair of whatever legitimate hand I called with. I call this the 'Donk Bet' or the 'Donk Bluff'.

Now don't get me wrong, the river is a great time to bluff in holdem, you get the most bang for your buck when you succeed, but let's look at two scenarios to really try and better understand when to bluff. In both cases the pot is medium sized, let's say 5 big bets and you have missed a draw:

1 - This first case you have raised preflop and bet the flop and turn with the nut flush draw. Your lone opponent has called all your bets on a board like 9h 8h Ks 5s Jc, then checks the river. Here, you should fire one more bullet with a hand like Ah 7h because it is possible that your opponent will fold any 9 or 8, a tight player might even lay down a Jack if his hand was J T. My point is that you have a reason to bluff, the pot has 5 big bets in it, this gives you 5 to 1 on your money to make a bluff and you have represented a good hand the whole way. Your opponent can only beat a bluff and given the way you have played this pot a bluff isn't very likely.

2- For the second example let's just reverse the first case. Now, you are in the BB with the Ah 7h and call the raise, check call with the nut flush draw on the flop and turn (this is a very weak passive way to play this hand by the way). Don't come out betting when you miss, this is the 'Donk Bet'. If you want to make a bluff, do it earlier in the hand while your holding still has a good amount of equity. Actually, I nice check raise on the turn in this hand is a very balanced play with regard to fold equity (he might muck) and pot equity (you might hit the river and get paid off if he calls the turn). 'Donk' betting the river into an opponent who looks like they have something good is suicide. The pot is offering you 5 to 1 on your money to bluff, and I wouldn't hesitate to estimate the rate at which your opponent calls is upwards of 95%. You are even vulnerable to a re-steal (very rare but it does happen).

The moral of the story is play in position and play good hands strong all the way and call the other players bad bets rather than make them yourself. You should justify to yourself every chip you place in the pot, don't just bet out in desperation. The two easiest ways to lose money are calling all the way with a weak hand (the King High) and betting out in hopeless situations (The Donk Bet).