If you've been following me on twitter (@oldtimepoker) you no doubt are aware that I've returned to poker in a big way. And by "big way" I mean, I'm playing a lot, not that I've made any sort of splash. In fact, I'm starting WAY at the bottom, and playing in games smaller than I ever have before. Why? Because I'm playing on a 3.7k bankroll. That's why :)
The aforementioned games include the "staple" 4/8 kill limit holdem, the "crazy game" 4/8 kill Omaha/Crazy Pineapple mix, $1/2 NL with a $100 buy in, and I played one session of $1/2 PLO no max buy-in (that game was actually too big for me I'd say). You can find all of these fine games plus 20/40 kill limit holdem and some much bigger NL and PLO action here in Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
In the past the smallest game I've ever played with any sort of consistency has been $15/30. I have a lot of stats on my $20/40, $30/60 and $40/80 game, but hardly anything for low stakes. Now, looking back, it's kinda funny to have all of these sustained good results over a 4.5 year period (since I started using the stat tool on cardplayer.com, which by the way is pretty handy because it can spit out excel spreadsheets for you). I made $33.50/hr at 20/40 (Toronto, Commerce and Calgary), $42.40/hr at 30/60 (Bellagio mostly), and $34.70/hr at 40/80 (Commerce), over several thousand of hours of play. You'd think it would maybe be hard for a semi-hardened limit holdem veteran like me to step way down to 4/8, but honestly, it's been awesome.
BUT, the #1 concern I had right out of the gate was: Can I even win any real money in a game this small? I've heard all kinds of old timers say that a game that small has too significant of a rake to be beatable. My guestimation is that I win around 2.7 pots per hour and that they are raked an average of $3 each (not including the optional bad beat jackpot drop, which here in Alberta is actually a zero sum proposition). So, I'm guessing here, but I think I'm getting raked around $8/hr, and losing out on a total of $10.70/hr when I don't hit the jackpot. Relying on the jackpot isn't a good policy, so let's just assume that I'm getting raked $10.70/hr... That's 1.33 big bets per hour! Daunting to say the least. But how does this really affect my bottom line?
In $20/40 I figure every pot is max raked and I win around 2.8 pots per hour, so it's easy to say that I'm out $17.00/hr, and that if I can beat the game for 1.5 big bets per hour, I'm totally in the clear earning $60 minus $17 for a profit of $43/hr. This is a normal result for me when I'm in an average game and playing well (which in the past was not always the case as I practiced very poor game selection in my 20s, alas, I digress.). So, if I could only beat the 4/8 game for 1.5 big bets, things would look like this: $12 minus $10.70 = $1.30/hr profit! HORRIBLE! My wife played 4/8 for 200 hours awhile back and her results looked only slightly better than this. When I first did these calculations, I got a little afraid, but then I realized something crucial. $20/40 is WAY TOUGHER than $4/8!!! OMFG these people can barely play! Many of them don't even appear to want to win?! OF COURSE I can make more big bets per hour in 4/8 than I can in 20/40. The question then becomes: how many more?
Well, I can't answer this question without a lot more stats, but I'm proud to say that in my first 85 hours I've been on the plus side by a margin of $16.07 per hour. This means that I've been beating $4/8 for approx. 2 big bets per hour more than I would estimate being able to win in a normal $20/40 game. Not bad at all. If I can keep my rate above $15/hr for 4/8 I'd be thrilled. My guess is that I've been running slightly above EV (winning an extra kill pot or two) and that $12 or $14 is probably as good as I can hope for long term. But I'll try and prove that wrong. And I'll keep you updated on this blog and via twitter as to how things shake out.
Everyday I look over at the 20/40 game, oftentimes licking my chops. But you can't play 20/40 on a 3.7k roll, I have to earn my way up the ladder this time, and do things right. I'm sick of my life being on the wire, and I'm sick of squandering my talent chasing the dream of making a huge score. In poker, the winners are the guys who think long term, and don't quit. I've been the most erratic player for the past 7 years, frequently taking weeks off, road tripping allover the place incurring high expenses, starting all sorts of other ventures and barely playing poker, never sticking to a solid, easy game to rebuild, etc... It's a losing philosophy. If you want to be successful, you've gotta play A LOT, and also, make sure to keep eating slices of humble pie on the regular.
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